What Russia’s International Army Games tell us about the war in Ukraine

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KALININGRAD REGION, RUSSIA – JUNE 5, 2019: Servicemen take part in a survival trail, Stage 2 of the Seaborne Assault competition as part of 2019 Army Games, an international event organized by the Russian Defense Ministry, at Khmelyovka range. Vitaly Nevar/TASS

Russia’s eighth annual International Army Games, a sports event designed to showcase military skills and running from August 13-27, are taking place this year against the tense backdrop of war in Ukraine. FRANCE 24 spoke to Colonel Mark F. Cancian of the US Marine Corps (retired) and now a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies about what he thought of Russia’s timing and what Moscow hopes to gain from the games.

These military exercises, started by the Kremlin in 2015 and planned by the Russian ministry of defence, usually involve around 30 countries and consist of 10 competitions that showcase several aspects of the participants’ military prowess.

The contests are designed to test a myriad of military skills, most notably armoured vehicle mastery (tanks and infantry fighting vehicles), aerial combat and defence, naval warfare, artillery accuracy, military engineering and infantry capabilities.

Some analysts view Moscow’s insistence on hosting the games as an attempt to display strength and resilience despite its underwhelming performance and mounting casualties in Ukraine.

But according to British intelligence, the decision to go ahead with the exercises drew condemnation from several Russian military and security professionals, who found it inappropriate to commit forces to ceremonial military events while soldiers continue to suffer heavy casualties in Ukraine.

Igor Girkin, a Russian hard-liner, former FSB officer and a minister in the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic in Ukraine’s east, has become an increasingly outspoken critic of the Kremlin’s handling of the war, according to Britain’s ministry of defence. Girkin, on August 19, posted on social media a comparison between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s admirable conduct during the war and contrasted it with Russia’s insistence on hosting the controversial games.

British intelligence has surmised that Russia is likely struggling to motivate the auxiliary forces it is using to augment its regular troops in the Donbas, saying commanders are probably resorting to direct financial incentives.

But despite flagging morale in the Russian army and an increasingly complicated situation in Ukraine, this year’s games have been a relative success, with 12 countries taking part including India, China and Iran.

Colonel Mark F. Cancian of the US Marine Corps (retired) and now a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies shared what he thought of Russia’s attempt at a show of force.

I think there are a couple things going on. First, they customarily do it at the end of August, so, the message they are sending is, normal operations will continue despite the war. The Russians have been sending that message consistently. They have not mobilised all of their forces and they are still calling this a special military operation. So, their main message is that normal activities will continue, and this is part of that normal activity.

In fact, if they had cancelled the games, that would have been a huge signal that, in fact, the Russian military was at war and that this was an extraordinary situation. They have been trying very hard to not send that message. Besides, it’s a great sort of propaganda and an engagement tool. By inviting a dozen countries to come and visit and participate, there is an element of goodwill and a good connection that goes with it. Moreover, they’ve apparently used this for propaganda purposes, as there are some displays of destroyed Ukrainian equipment.

I was a little surprised, looking at the list again, that they got a pretty good number of countries to participate as I thought that maybe the numbers would be down substantially because of Russia’s position as a pariah state. But that does not appear to have happened.

 [AFP]